An NBA win-probability model, charted play by play against the live prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, with an honest backtest of whether trading on it would make money.
Games: model vs market Money: the honest result Kalshi vs Polymarket Research: the models
Read-only share from a laptop: it is only up while that laptop is on. Pretend money only: with realistic trade timing the strategy currently loses money, and the site says so.
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